Arsenal made the right decision to pass on Victor Osimhen, opting instead for Kai Havertz, with a preference for the latter’s £55.6 million transfer fee.
Arsenal’s need for a striker this summer is a hot topic. Do I believe Arsenal should sign a centre-forward? Yes, but the situation is more complex than simply spending over £100 million on someone like Victor Osimhen.
Alexander Isak would be an ideal option with fewer concerns, but that deal seems unlikely. Other options, including Osimhen, have their drawbacks. Although fans view Osimhen as a surefire success and a “20-goal-plus-a-season-striker,” he has only achieved 20 league goals in one season (2022/23) and fell short by 11 goals last season due to injuries and the African Cup of Nations.
Kai Havertz, Arsenal’s current centre-forward, transitioned to the role mid-season and finished with only two fewer league goals than Osimhen. Despite perceptions that Osimhen is a more clinical finisher, Havertz had a better goal-per-shot ratio (0.18) than Osimhen (0.14). Even in Osimhen’s best season, his ratio matched Havertz’s 0.18.
Havertz also exceeded his non-penalty expected goals (npxG) slightly more than Osimhen in the same season. Spending another £100 million for a marginal difference seems unnecessary, especially considering Havertz’s superior collaborative play, evidenced by his higher shot-creating actions per 90 minutes compared to Osimhen.
This makes 20-year-old Benjamin Sesko, with a £55.6 million release clause, a more appealing option. Sesko’s potential and ability to integrate gradually into the team make him an attractive choice. His goal-per-shot ratio (0.3) is more than double Osimhen’s last season, and he significantly outperformed his npxG.
Arsenal fans desiring a clinical finisher should consider Sesko. Despite calls for a new striker, Arsenal scored more goals than ever in the Premier League and secured more wins than the 2003/04 Invincibles, even with their centre-forward playing out of position for much of the season. Enhancing the squad’s depth in this role is beneficial but not essential.